In the Rear View Mirror

Some things can only be clearly seen after they have passed. Peak Oil is one example: Whether it happened in 2006 (as some experts are now saying) or will happen in 40 to 50 years (as big-oil folks tend to say), we won’t really know that it happened until it is a been–there, done–that kind of thing. Is “peak age” another phenomenon we will recognize in the rear view mirror?

Dr. Richard Carmona is the United States Surgeon General. In 2004, he and Dr. William Dietz, Director of the Division of Nutrition and Physical Activity at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, testified before Congress about the obesity epidemic. During their testimony, Carmona said, “Over the past 20 years, the rates of overweight doubled in children and tripled in adolescents. Today nearly two out of every three American adults and 15 percent of American kids are overweight or obese. That's more than 9 million children—one in every seven kids—who are at increased risk of weight-related chronic diseases. These facts are astounding, but they are just the beginning of a chain reaction of dangerous health problems, many of which were once associated only with adults.”

The nation’s top doctors went on to tell the House members that “the annual cost of obesity is now estimated at up to $117 billion in direct and indirect costs,” and “because of the increasing rates of obesity, unhealthy eating habits, and physical inactivity, we may see the first generation that will be less healthy and have a shorter life expectancy than their parents.”

They were referring to today’s kids, but I am starting to think that we will reach peak age, or the point in time when the longevity curve begins falling, in the boomer generation—not in today’s and tomorrow’s generations, as these learned men suggest. Their statement got some press at the time, but for the most part, Americans still talk in terms of increasing life expectancy. I think that’s wishful thinking! I’m a tail-end baby boomer, and as I look around at my peers, and their kids and grandkids, I see far more health problems popping up earlier than in my parent’s generation. For example, among my extended clan’s parental age group (my parents, in-laws, aunts and uncles on both sides, etc.) there were no heart attacks when that generation (call them the WWII generation) was in their 50s, yet two of my the men of my generation had heart attacks around 50, and are now on medication for their conditions. None of the WWIIers took blood pressure or cholesterol meds starting in their 40s, yet several of my generation did. None had cancer in their 50s, yet at least one of my generation has had a diagnosis of cancer. Just my family’s bad luck. No! I see similar trends among friends and acquaintances. And then, if I look at the health problems of young adults and younger kids (genX, genY, and even genZ) among my extended family and my friends’ families, I see even more problems cropping up at even younger ages.

Will I live longer than my mother? Will my husband outlast his father? Will boomers, genXers, genYers, and genZers continue gaining in the age department? My guess is that the answers to most of these questions will be no. Why will age drop if it does? Well, we boomers were, overall, exposed to more chemicals than our parents. Our kids have been exposed to more than we have. Their kids are being exposed to still more. Those exposures, as well as less physical activity and less healthy eating habits will combine to move our life expectancy backwards.